Mortgage Time

Prime Alliance Solutions
November 11, 2009 | COMMENTS

Two of the most highly anticipated economic events of the month took place recently, but their impact on mortgage rates was small. The Fed made few changes in its policy statement, and the employment data was not much of a surprise to most investors.

While daily volatility was high this week, mortgage rates ended nearly unchanged. As expected at its Wednesday meeting, the Fed made no change in the fed funds rate. The statement kept the same language indicating that the Fed will hold rates at extremely low levels for an "extended period." The Fed reported that economic activity has "continued to pick up" and that the housing market has improved.

According to the Fed, inflation is likely to remain low due to unused capacity in the economy. Overall, there were no major surprises in the statement, and the Fed provided no firm guidance on the timing of future rate hikes. The statement noted that low inflationary expectations and high unemployment rates reduced the need to raise rates. Investors interpreted this to mean that these will be key indicators to determine when the Fed will begin to raise rates.

Friday's employment data provided no reason to expect a rate hike in the near future. The economy continued to lose jobs in October, and the unemployment rate shot up to 10.2% from 9.8% in September, which was the highest level since April 1983. President Obama signed a bill Friday extending the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit, making it applicable to contracts entered into by April 30, 2010, and closing by June 30, 2010. The bill also includes a new $6,500 tax credit for homebuyers who have previously owned a home, if that home was their primary residence for five consecutive years out of the last eight years. Both the $8,000 credit and the $6,500 credit have expanded buyer income limits, and the cost of the home being purchased is limited to $800,000.

Other notable items:

• Third-quarter productivity increased 9.5%, the fastest pace of growth in six years
• September pending home sales jumped 6% to the highest level since December 2006
• The Treasury will auction a record $81 billion in 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries next week 
• The Fed purchased $16 billion in agency MBS during the week ending 11/4

Mortgage Time is provided by MBSQuoteline.com. Reprinted with permission from the newsletter of Prime Alliance Solutions, a CUSO that provides tools and services for real estate lending.